. Often hidden by many, asthma is a set of chronic conditions that will, some believe, impact around 1bn of us by the end of the decade. It will see new diagnostics, new treatments as well as gain new social and economic perspectives in many nations. As part of a global Open Foresight programme to bring together an informed outlook for all to use, this report is based on dialogue with over 100 experts worldwide.

Because asthma is affected by environmental degradation, poor air quality and rising obesity levels it disproportionately affects the poor. The combination of rapid industrialisation, increased urbanisation, and projected ecological change indicates we are heading towards a world where as many as one in eight people will be afflicted within the next decade. Expect an associated rise in mortality.

The sector is dominated by a small number of key players. Perhaps because of this governments, healthcare providers and supporting business structures have been slow to respond to the rising incidence of asthma. As a result, scientific advances which could have the potential to transform diagnosis, treatment, and management seem to be constrained by clinical and political complacency.

Looking ahead, global trends are shifting how and where future innovation may take place and which organisations could have a controlling influence. Better patient engagement, more personalisation, greater access to data, including the use of AI, alongside scientific innovations and the wider availability of longer lasting medication are all combining to offer new models for healthcare delivery. Leading universities, researchers, and pharmaceutical companies have already prioritised specific areas of focus including inhaled delivery, the growth in the use of biologics, and the targeting of genetic areas.

Beyond this, changes in funding priorities will pave the way for a plethora of new entrants revealing new opportunities, particularly for technology companies with their increasing focus on healthcare and taste for disruption. As this plays out then more, and better support for the increasingly visible 1 billion sufferers may follow.